Deck the Hall. A festive interlude

Greg Wyatt • December 24, 2025

Seeing as it's Christmas, I thought I'd break the flow of AiDE and break our minds, instead.


This is one of my favourite Substack articles from December 22nd, 2023.


It relates to a line I've been using in my job search advice - "the step isn't as important as how the step is achieved" - and also relates to the assumptions we make when we consume social media.


Challenge everything!


-


The logic of it is addling my brain.


But it’s a concept worth considering when you think about probable outcomes in recruitment.


Imagine you are a contestant on “Let’s make a deal,” presented by Monty Hall.


In front of you are three closed doors, behind which are two goats and a precious prize, let’s say a shiny Chevrolet.


Monty tells you to pick one door, but instead of opening it he gives you a boost.


He opens one of the other two doors with the requirement it has to reveal a goat.


Then he asks if you want to switch your choice.


What do you do?


Hold or switch?


It’s simple probability, right?


A 50% chance between one door or the other that you’ll win your Christmas Car.

Wrong.


If you choose to switch doors, your odds of winning increase to 66.67%.


Such an outrageous proposition that when Marilyn vos Savant described it in Parade magazine in 1990 there were a few complaints.


10,000 of them. From readers, including world-renowned PhD Statisticians, who were happy to correct her Gambler’s Fallacy.


The mistake they all made was that she wasn’t wrong.


The crux of their error, and why this is so confusing, is that it’s not quite the simple probability problem it appears.


It’s a question of quality of information.


Monty Hall makes the decision, once a door has been chosen, to open a door hiding a goat.


He cannot open a door with a car.


And that affects the odds of switching being in your favour.


If you run it as an experiment you’ll see a switch works in favour of you two-thirds of the time. There also multiple in-depth explorations of why it is true online.


This is an example of a veridical paradox, which proposes absurd results that prove to be true. The link includes a video explaining the Monty Hall Problem in more detail.


When dealing with information in a volume-based process, it’s easy to neglect the importance quality of information has.


Not just the information itself, but how it has been derived and its context.


If you feel you are 50-50 on a candidate, the temptation might be to see what else is out there.


“Keep them warm.”


A logical decision that suits you yet neglects key elements of the overall puzzle:


  • how realistic your requirement is
  • how thoroughly the candidate marketplace has been searched
  • how your decision impacts the candidate’s interest in your vacancy
  • how time kills deals


Rather than fishing elsewhere, why not establish the full picture first?


Another example might be the comparison of CVs.


Let’s say you advertise directly, do outreach to your network and ask multiple agencies to send you CVs.


Surely this is the best way to fill your vacancy?


It might be, if


  • candidates aren’t turned off by a fragmented approach that seems to indicate anyone will do
  • you correctly prioritise the quality of information based on how those candidates have been qualified, assessed and vetted; that they are all interested for the right reasons
  • your suppliers have your best interests at heart rather than their own


An intuitive approach may work against you.


Look at the journey a candidate has taken in becoming a CV on your desk, and you’ll get a better insight into their likelihood of being the right hire.


Or how about advertising?


If 95% (generous) of adverts follow the same form (Company info, what the job is, what we need, apply now with an up-to-date CV and cover letter), then it makes sense that’s how you advertise.


Except that isn’t what appeals to readers.


Why follow the crowd who profess of too many irrelevant applicants, when you could do something different that better fills vacancies with people who stick around longer?


Write for the reader. Give them what they need. Show what’s in it for them. Invite them to get in touch. Adverts become more effective.

Odds and statistics feel scientific and trustworthy, especially when common sense supports their conclusions.


But when you need a different outcome, challenge that common sense and look deeper - that’s often where the wins are.


Two-thirds of the time.


Regards,

Greg


p.s. Merry Christmas.

p.p.s “Lies, damned lies and statistics”


By Greg Wyatt February 23, 2026
What follows is Chapter 21 in A Career Breakdown Kit (2026) . It's a good example of how a job search is an inverted recruitment exercise, but also how the same principles from recruitment can be applied in a job search. Market mapping is one of the first steps of a search process in what is often called headhunting. Here though, instead of an exercise that helps find a person for a job, you help find a job for you. This can be in one chunk, at the outset, and iteratively, as you learn more information. It's a great example of how LinkedIn can be used as a data repository, given the vast majority of professionals are present here. And if they are present here, the insight that is their careers is too, allowing you to identify potential viable employers, who works there, and therefore where else they may have worked, with further potential hiring managers. The snake that eats its own tail. Try doing the iterative work above, every time you come across someone new, whether in an application or in networking . You can use this to build out your network, identify companies to contact proactively. Simon Ward and I will talk more on this in our LinkedIn Live on Tuesday February 24th at 1pm GMT. You can join us, and view the full recording afterwards, here: Is The Nature Of Networking Changing for Job Hunters? If you happen to read this as a hiring authority, market mapping is one of the invisible processes in a structured search. It can often take me 80 to 100 hours to fully map a role for potential viable candidates, given I try to find non-traditional candidates as well as those that are easier to find through sourcing. 21 - Map the market Market mapping is a common activity in executive search. Why wouldn’t you adopt the same approach in your inverse of a recruitment exercise? The idea is to fully understand your market, so that you are better able to navigate it. This is a summary chapter because market mapping is both a strategic and a tactical exercise. I’ll cover some of the How of mapping in Part Three. There are three ways in which to map the market. The vacancies you are qualified for This is about determining which vacancies you should focus your attention on. In which domains does your capability directly apply? This could be context related, if your expertise is in start-ups, growth, downsizing or other contexts. It could be industry related - your process manufacturing expertise might directly apply in food, plastics or pharmaceuticals. It could be job related, with the right applicable skills. Establish where there is a market for you, and if what you offer is needed by that market. Advice on the transferable skills trap (p55) and whether you are qualified (p178) to apply will help. The geography of your job search Where are all the employers and vacancies that you can sustainably commute to? A geographical map can help you target opportunities by region. What resources are available to help you with this map? Searching online for local business parks, even driving around them, can give a list of viable companies to contact. Directories and membership hubs. Local newspapers, social media stories. If you see a company you like the look of, say from an advert, search on their local post code. Who else might be there? The chapter on doorknocking (p241) has more ideas. The people of your network Every time you come across someone you might build a relationship with, connect with them on LinkedIn. Then check out their career history. Who else have they worked with? Where else have they worked? This works for peers, hiring managers, and recruiters - a headhunter in one company may well have worked in a similar domain in a previous one. Is there anyone at these previous companies you should introduce yourself to? What about their listed vacancies? Building out a map of relevant recruiters to develop relationships with (if they answer the phone) can lead to vacancies. Treat it as an iterative exercise. Check out the chapter on networking (p236). This map isn’t just about potential opportunity. It’s also about information that might be helpful now and in future. This might be for job leads. It might be industry insight you can share through content. It may even be topics for conversation in interviews or with peers. Make sure you track it in the right way, whether through Notion, Excel or other resources you have available. With any information, check it is accurate, then prune appropriately. Prioritise on degrees of separation (closest first) and context fit (where what you need is most closely aligned with what you offer). 
By Greg Wyatt February 19, 2026
I find myself questioning whether I effectively use AiDE, and whether it's effective enough every time I recruit. As an external partner I work low volume, which allows time to do things 'right'. However, when I take on fractional in-house work, I still deploy the same framework, even at mid volume (my highest volume was 55 vacancies in six months). Because it's scalable and can be applied across a whole recruitment system. I wouldn't recommend it to a high volume, high churn environment, though I expect they aren't reading these newsletters. It isn't just about advertising. A current vacancy is at final interview today. I ran an 'appropriate multichannel' campaign, including public advertising, networking & referrals, 'headhunting' (sourcing across LinkedIn and CV databases). My advert was a consequence of my consultations, as was the six page candidate pack provided to viable applicants. My narrow then wide sourcing strategy was a consequence of the same consultation. My written and spoken outreach was also a consequence of this. That I shared the advert and candidate pack proactively, was in part why I had a 100% response rate to my six inmails (it's a niche role in a low population area). What was also interesting was that a number of the applicants described themselves as passive, and there was a significant overlap between the 56 and the sourced longlist. I noted that one of the final interview sourced candidates had viewed the public advert after our initial conversations. I find advertising can be effective with passive candidates, because they can browse without commitment. You'll never know they were there if they don't get in touch, and they aren't going to be interested in a cookie cutter peacock advert. But that gap is a hard one to breach if all you know is "we're a market leading employer of choice". Because we rely on the evidence of what's in front of us. This is the final AiDE piece. I plan to publish this as a short paperback, given I think it stands alone as an approach that can improve your recruitment. Next week I start "Innovation from Iteration" which includes an article on why the Gemba (value from the shop floor) is valuable for recruitment. Where it relates here is that my work with job seekers, and what turns them off from enquiring to adverts, has been so helpful in finding the blind spots our habits miss. While the next series is separate, and was mainly written before AiDE, both show the modularity of recruitment and how you can experiment iteratively, layering on good foundations in a way that best works for you. As I've said before, you can see pretty much all of me through these pieces, which may help you decide whether we should ever do business together. This final piece is about how negative descriptors can attract great people. In the example above, one of the lines I lead with is "this won't be for you if you thrive in a structured, corporate environment." Both because it's true, and because it speaks to frustrations viable candidates may have. Of course I also talk about how they can make a bigger splash in a smaller pond, if they can adapt to a smaller company setting. Pushing and pulling are key tools in the AiDE framework. Negative Space June 2023 “This isn’t just any typical food manufacturing company, with an as-is workforce that only requires handholding and firefighting.” A bit of context: HR in the East of England is fragmented, with many senior HR practitioners being more of the old-school personnel approach than commercially focused. And others adopt the People title with no rhyme or reason. A common reason for commercial HR vacancies rejecting candidates who have identical CVs to successful candidates is that line above. It resonates with many commercial HR practitioners that have interviewed either as an employer or candidate. Firefighting here means the high volume of employee relations common to food manufacturing. No time to do the proactive stuff. I should point out this was a confidentially advertised vacancy. Were it branded or directly advertised, you’d need to think about how this kind of description is perceived, in case you’re seen to criticise your ‘competitors’. When I ran it on LinkedIn, there were 32 applicants, 14 of whom were auto-rejected by the killer question ‘do you have full right to work in the UK’. 10 were suitable enough to call. 2 of these were submitted to the employer, alongside 3 found through other means. 1 of them got the job. In total, I spoke to around 40 candidates before presenting this shortlist. “That line really struck a chord with me, and it’s so true of some of the companies I interviewed with last time”, said the candidate that went on to get the job. She'd also seen their original advert and not applied, because it seemed exactly the same as her current one. She wasn’t the only person to comment so. Disappointingly, not one person spotted the M&S allusion. By highlighting what it isn’t, this line draws attention to what it is: The negative space of a vacancy. It’s actually pretty simple to find this kind of example for any common skill vacancy - I include a niche HR role in this category. “What reasons have you had for declining candidates, in terms of skill sets, context or attitudes?” “Why wouldn’t someone work out in this role?” “Why did it go wrong last time?” The answer’s with the hiring manager. If it’s a role for which there are archetypes for success and failure, you can set the scene while speaking to the ikigai and experiences of your readers. We should be mindful of bias of course: “This isn’t a company with a diverse workforce or where people stay longer than a year” might be an accurate counterpoint to concerns about culture fit and institutionalisation, but perhaps not something you want to advertise. “You’ll hate it here if you’re a West Ham fan.” “If you enjoy the machinations of structured corporate life, this won’t be for you.” It’s an approach that works for many reasons: It sets the scene with texture and candour It appeals to the experiences of candidates and builds trust It tells them they aren’t going to waste their time by going for the wrong job It shows you know the truth of the vacancy, from unexpected angles For readers that enjoy “a steady reactive workload where they can support line managers through disciplinaries and grievances,” they’ll get a sense they aren’t an ideal candidate, confirmed by the rest of the advert. Nothing wrong with what they do, of course, it’s just a different type of HR. It’s an ‘essential requirement’ in disguise that helps readers make the right decision while giving an implicit and constructive reason for saying no It’s unusual enough to be a pattern interrupt that encourages credibility and to focus on the rest of the advert If relevant, I’ll include ‘negative space’ in my adverts, whether above-the-line or below-the-line. If you were wondering about the picture, which is a style you are likely familiar with – it’s Rubin’s Vase, an optical illusion whereby two faces are created from the negative space of the vase. Thanks for reading. Regards, Greg