Numbers game

Greg Wyatt • July 30, 2024

This article builds on a recent LinkedIn post with additional thoughts and advice.

I should point out the analysis below is necessarily generic, and every industry, location and job function has its own variables.

Original post:


When you see 400 people have already applied to a vacancy, you might think not to even bother applying.

But these numbers aren't always accurate, and never the full story - let me explain why, and how this might inform your decisions.

- There is a common reporting error, it seems when linked to an ATS, when a click that leads to an incomplete application is still counted as an application. The true number here is often lower.

- In this tough market, it's understandable that many people will apply at volume, often without reading the adverts. Tools like EasyApply allow a straightforward application, while automation like LazyApply can literally allow you to apply to 2,000 vacancies while you are sleeping.

- This leads to a high number of 'wholly unsuitable' applications. Common reasons can be no work permit or experience that has no relation to the vacancy.

- As well as a high number of applications that appear suitable yet are non-viable. This might be down to a too high salary requirement; one reason to list salary and help people make informed decisions. Even then many will still apply. Or they may have missed simple points like a location too far to commute to. These applications are fairly straightforward to rule out, yet at scale are time consuming.

These three points together mean that anything from 80% to 99% of applications aren't suitable, if they even exist.

So when you read 400, there may be only 4 suitable candidates - if you are a strongly suitable candidate, it's well worth considering. And maybe follow up directly with the hiring manager, where it's possible.

If you want a real-life example of what might go on behind the scenes with an advert, check out the screenshot below. I'll link to the original post in comments.

It doesn't help that many adverts don't list salary, misrepresent working conditions, or are so vague you can't assess if you even are suitable. By all means apply, but treat these as low stakes.

It also doesn't help that employers make arbitrary decisions. Such as a post I read recently which took down an advert after 24 hours, having received a huge response - then expressed surprise none were suitable. 🤷‍♂️

While at the same time these high numbers of non-viable applications take oxygen away from people who apply with care and specificity.

There aren't any easy answers to this situation, which is driven by poor market conditions, application processes that work against the applicant and, let's face it, a bunch of cynical behaviour from many hiring organisations.


Some added thoughts:


We are where we are with the jobs market = a high volume of jobseekers, a difficult market to navigate, few vacancies and many poor experiences.

Much of this is defined by the state of the market and wider economy. In the UK this does look to be getting better, and will lead to a shift for job seekers = more vacancies, less competition from qualified candidates, more urgency from employers to deal well with people in a competitive landscape.

It may be that if you’ve struggled through this market for the past few months, things improve - it’s what I’ve been hearing from job seekers and candidates I’m in touch with.

For candidates who take care in their applications, it’s been the single thing holding them back.

But market conditions are out of our control, whereas how you respond to individual situations is in your control.


When you see an advert such as we’ve just picked through, it’s certainly worth considering applying to, if you can show you are a suitable candidate.

If you can’t, and it’s a common skills role, I’d make the choice to step away. Concentrate, instead, on roles you are a 60-80% fit for (lower if it’s a niche role).

If you do decide to apply, don’t just rely on the transactional process:

  • find out who the hiring manager is and contact them directly, check if they are still reviewing applications, and make a case for yourself

  • if you can’t establish the hiring manager, who can you find that’s related to gain more information? Use the LinkedIn search bar to find peers in the same department, or people handling their recruitment, such as a Talent Acquisition Manager

  • find constructive reasons to keep in touch, especially if you are declined later in process.

If you see an interesting role that has closed, get in touch directly, it might be that scenario at the top where they have many applicants, but no one suitable.


It’s a careful balance. You want to find ways to cut through the transactional process, without being a pain (which may be behaviour that a hiring process uses to decline you) or being seen to cheat.

Listen to anything you get back from a process, and use that to inform your approach. This might be anything from specific instructions to follow in an application (in which case do so but think about what you can additionally do to stand out), through to individual feedback on your application.


Get ahead of the game, if a company advertises widely on LinkedIn, create a job alert on their company page (click on their company name, go to jobs and you’ll see the option).


The flip side of this advert scenario is that numbers can and will work against a careful application, such as if an advert is removed before you can tailor your CV.

Or worse, if an advert remains live, but no applications are reviewed after the first 100.

It’s an argument for having a single ‘good enough’ CV so you can move quickly, rather than spending hours on a single application.


Above all, think what you can do differently from what may be a high volume of people only applying through a transactional process. You can see how to do that by reading through other posts on the archive.


I hope this article has given you a little more insight into what goes on behind the scenes.

It won’t solve the problems inherent in our advertising industry, yet at least it may explain some of your experiences.

As well as what changes to your approach you might make to improve your return in what is a numbers game for many.

Thanks for reading.

Greg

By Greg Wyatt August 18, 2026
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By Greg Wyatt August 11, 2026
What follows is Chapter 49 in A Career Breakdown Kit (Summer 2026) . It's like many other chapters in that I've tried to make it stand alone, yet it's deeply connected to the rest of the book. For example, if you accept your job search is equivalent to launching a product to market - where you are the product and your next employer the buyer - then a sensible strategy is also equivalent. You execute an appropriate multichannel sales and marketing plan, where you focus on the steps in your control, with considered action and follow up. An interview process is an ongoing negotiation, with each interview equivalent to a consultative sales meeting. And like any good sales professional, you know that the steps preceding, the steps in-between, and the steps after all have a part to play. In my last three offers these have all been contributing factors: The relationship nurtured by the hiring manager led to their new employee hitting the ground running The private information withheld by the candidate that led to an offer rescinded because she could never have fulfilled the role in the first place The enthusiasm shown by a candidate in post interview communications tipped a decision in their favour Recruitment is risk, filled with bias - that doesn't mean you can't make that work for you. 49 - After the interview In a tough job search, getting to an interview can feel a real achievement. If you’ve been accountable in your applications, only going for roles where you are a strong fit, these are tangible opportunities to secure employment. The interview itself isn’t the be-all and end-all. It’s better to see them as the start of a conversation, one that’s only complete when you either have an acceptable employment contract in your hand, or if it’s an unequivocal no. Continuing this conversation in the right way, and in ways other candidates may not think to, can bring hoped for and unexpected gains. A few weeks back I filled a vacancy which had a strong shortlist. The final three were all employable, and the company would have taken all three had they been able to. The second choice candidate was disappointed and took it well, responding professionally. I worked hard to give all three a good experience with regular updates and constructive feedback. I too was genuinely disappointed for the ‘unsuccessful’ candidates. Two weeks after accepting the offer and returning the signed contract, the first-choice candidate withdrew. She’d received a significantly improved offer having been headhunted. Within two hours of passing the news on to the hiring team, the 2nd choice candidate was offered the role and accepted. How she had responded to her initial disappointment was a key element in this offer being put forward. The same was true of her experience with us in her decision to accept the offer. In many ways an interview is like a sales meeting. One party pitches their offering which might be customised against the questions asked. The other party makes a decision on whether and how to proceed. In an interview both the candidate and employer act as both seller and buyer. As a job seeker you get the final say on whether you say yes, no or something in between. Your decision is influenced by factors you may not divulge to the employer, such as an unexpected intervention (illness, accident, family), personal circumstances or other offers that may come up. It’s the same for the employer. They may have a hierarchy of decision-making, changes in the business and changes outside of the business - many things that can influence an interview decision or time frame, different from what was initially agreed. In sales we know that a deal isn’t agreed upon until the invoice is paid. Even if there is an initial ‘yes’ in a meeting we follow up suitably. Follow-up email to confirm details of the conversation and next steps. Thank you for your time Follow up at the appropriate time to check progress If it’s ‘no right now’, follow up over time to build a relationship until they are ready to buy If it’s ‘no answer’, find appropriate reasons to follow up, ending in a breakup email What this actually looks relates to what their sales (hiring) process is, playing to their rules and breaking those same rules in an appropriate way. In the UK, 61% of private sector employers are SMEs, whereas the vast majority of money is in the corporate space. The differentiator in recruitment is that the more corporate you get, the more transactional and matrix-led recruitment often becomes. Some of the rules of the game will be different. This illustrates how and why things are different depending on the context. Public sector, charities, geography, bias, habit, strategy - these all affect the rules of what appear similar processes from the outside. It’s important not to be cynical or come across as coercive. Respect the process and any rules you learn about. Thank you notes Most of the employers I partner with are interested in candidate feedback and interest post-interview - to help them reach their decision for the right reason. Were you applying directly, their interest in your view would be the same. A naturally written thank you note sent appropriately should not work against you. It might work for you and it’s a situation where someone’s bias can be a benefit. ‘Dear Greg, I wanted to thank you for your time today and the opportunity to interview at ABC Corp. It was a pleasure to meet you and Gary and helpful to understand more about your role and environment. I remain keen and would be delighted to return for the next stage. You mentioned you’ll make a decision by the end of next week and I look forward to hearing from you. Do let me know if I can help with anything - my number is …. Kind regards,’ It’s an opportunity to build on or mitigate inconclusive points in an interview if there’s an example you neglected to share or if you didn’t convey information in the right way. Maybe they let slip they’d be concerned if the role would keep your interest in the long term - why not own this? ‘During the interview you asked if I could see myself in this role long-term. It’s a role I’d enjoy - taking on a hands-on role I can get stuck into is an exciting challenge, while my experience in xxx would be beneficial for yyy.’ Keep it more succinct than my email though. Write it in your own words in a similar tone to how you came across in the interview. Will it make a difference? Only marginally, in some situations. Is it worth doing as a natural way to continue the conversation? I think so. Don’t be disheartened if you don’t get a reply - they may have a policy to follow. And to that coercive point above don’t say ‘I’m the best candidate. You’d be a fool to miss out,’ or something more subtle that might suggest the same. Additional interviews In an ideal world you’d get a full view of the interview process before the interview. Unfortunately some employers enjoy playing a game of interview chicken, revealing more and more interview stages as you go through them. Most are somewhere in between. Try to establish the full process as early as possible in case there is anything that is non-negotiable for you. For example, I know some people categorically do not want to do technical tests or ‘business plan’ style presentations, having had their fingers burnt in the past. It’s your choice what might be a non-negotiable - for any reasonable employer these are typically used as a means for fair assessment. Treat any interview in the same way as the first interview: prepare as fully as possible and assume nothing. Unless you know their hierarchy of decision-making, that new person you meet at fourth stage for an informal chat might well be the person with the final say. Even a social get-together after an offer is put forward might be seen as an assessment. Appropriate follow-ups It’s a careful balance. You want to show you are interested, not desperate. You need an answer, not to be inappropriately intrusive - even if that’s not your intent perception holds weight. Following up in the right way is a good tactic. If you can gain an understanding of their time frames or process work to that. Anything and everything can happen behind the scenes, including unexpected absences. Things can slip in a way employers may not see as notable. A few work days after you were expecting to hear, drop them a polite line. ‘Hi Greg, I wondered if you had any news on how you want to proceed with this role. Is there any update you can share? Kind regards,’ You can play a bit of keeping up with the Joneses if it’s true - ‘I remain interested - I do have two interviews this week with other employers. Would you like me to keep you updated?’ Sometimes no news is no news and you might need to be patient. Eventually you may come to a point where you need a decision from them - such as if your 2nd choice company gives you a job offer. A breakup email can be a good thing. Even if this doesn’t prompt an update or decision from them, you give yourself agency to walk away with no ‘what ifs?’ And if they do come back later, you can make a separate decision on whether to revisit them. One such email might be: ‘Hi Greg, I enjoyed our interview on May 21st. You mentioned you’d reach a decision the following week. Can I assume you have moved forward with another candidate? I’ll draw a line through my application for now and will be happy to pick up our conversations at a later date, if appropriate. Kind regards,’ Written appropriately, there are three outcomes: You get a reply confirming they have appointed You get no reply and can move on You get a reply with more information That last point may be ‘no news’ or something actionable. Sometimes it might even prompt good news. Whatever the outcome, you can move forward. Keeping in touch long-term Sometimes a no might be a ‘no for now’, especially when you are later on in the process, such as being pipped to the post at final interview. If yours is a business as usual role where there are a number of employees fulfilling similar duties in the same company, you may well be suitable for other roles that come up in future. How can you keep in touch appropriately so that you help their decision making when another vacancy comes up? Find reasons to occasionally keep in touch (maybe once every couple of months). If they are active on LinkedIn you could follow their content and add constructive comments. It may come to nothing but it may give you early sight of a new vacancy. If you see another vacancy advertised check it out. Drop them a line directly rather than just apply given you are continuing a conversation rather than coming in cold. And if they reply to say ‘don’t bother’, at least you know.